Masters 2026 Predictions vs Results: How Our Green Jacket Picks Held Up

The Masters is golf's most prestigious tournament, and the 2026 edition at Augusta National promises to deliver one of the most compelling fields in recent memory. With the world's best players in exceptional form and several compelling storylines converging, this year's green jacket battle could be decided by the finest of margins. Here are our complete Masters 2026 predictions, tier by tier, as published in March.

Updated 7 October 2026: the tournament has been played. Our original picks stand below as a record, with a few factual errors corrected, and the section How Our Predictions Held Up, near the end, shows what actually happened. For all four 2026 majors in one place, see our 2026 majors review.

What Makes a Masters Champion?

Before diving into specific predictions, it is worth understanding what Augusta National demands from its champions. The course rewards precision iron play, exceptional putting on fast, undulating greens, and the mental fortitude to handle pressure that builds throughout the week.

Masters champions typically excel in several key statistical categories: greens in regulation, proximity to the hole, putting average, and scrambling ability. The course's firm, fast conditions favour players who can shape shots and control trajectory - particularly on the approach shots that define success at Augusta.

Perhaps most importantly, Masters champions must handle the unique pressure of golf's most scrutinised tournament. The atmosphere at Augusta is unlike anywhere else in golf, and players who thrive under this spotlight often possess a rare combination of skill and temperament.

Tier 1: The Clear Favourites

Scottie Scheffler

The world number one enters the 2026 Masters as the betting favourite for good reason. Scottie Scheffler has established himself as Augusta's most consistent performer over recent years, combining his methodical approach with course knowledge that few can match.

Scheffler's statistical profile aligns perfectly with Augusta's demands. His iron play ranks among the best on tour, he excels on fast greens, and his steady demeanour under pressure makes him ideally suited to handle Masters Sunday. His form coming into April was less sharp than usual. ESPN noted driver struggles and no top-10 finish since mid-February, yet he went off the betting favourite at +500.

The Texan's familiarity with Augusta cannot be overstated. He has finished inside the top 10 in his last four Masters appearances, and his understanding of how the course plays in different conditions gives him a significant advantage over players still learning the nuances of the layout.

Rory McIlroy

The Northern Irishman arrives as defending champion. Rory McIlroy beat Justin Rose in a playoff in 2025 to complete the career Grand Slam, and now chases something only Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods have done: back-to-back green jackets.

McIlroy's game has evolved considerably since his early Augusta struggles. The questions this spring are physical and on the greens. A back injury forced his withdrawal from the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and his putting has slipped to 104th in strokes gained after ranking ninth last year. The five-time major champion understands that patience is paramount at Augusta, and he has already proved he can close there.

With the Grand Slam finally done, the weight of all those years of speculation has lifted. That freedom could work in his favour, though no defending champion has won at Augusta since Woods in 2002.

Ludvig Åberg

The young Swede has taken the golf world by storm with his fearless approach and exceptional ball-striking. Åberg's rapid rise to the upper echelons of the world ranking has been built on precisely the skills that succeed at Augusta - accurate iron play, strong putting, and an aggressive mindset when opportunities arise. In two Masters starts he has finished runner-up on debut in 2024 and seventh in 2025.

What makes Åberg particularly dangerous at Augusta is his lack of scar tissue from previous disappointments. While experience at the Masters is valuable, the course can equally punish players who become too cautious based on past struggles. Åberg's aggressive style could pay dividends on a course that rewards bold shot-making.

His recent performances in major championships suggest he thrives under the biggest spotlights. At 26 years old, he represents a new generation of players comfortable competing against the established stars of the game.

Tier 2: Strong Contenders

Xander Schauffele

Xander Schauffele has established himself as one of golf's most reliable major championship performers. His consistency in the biggest events is remarkable, and Augusta's demanding layout suits his methodical approach perfectly.

The American's iron play ranks among the tour's best, and his putting statistics on fast greens like Augusta's are exceptional. Schauffele rarely makes costly errors, and his ability to stay patient during difficult stretches makes him ideally suited to Masters Sunday pressure.

His previous Augusta performances back that up: top-10 finishes in five of his last seven Masters starts. He already owns two majors, and Augusta could provide the stage for a third.

Collin Morikawa

Few players in the modern game possess Collin Morikawa's precision with the irons, and Augusta National rewards accurate approach play more than perhaps any other major championship venue. The two-time major winner has the exact skillset needed to contend at the highest level.

Morikawa's course management is exceptional, and his ability to hit precise yardages into Augusta's undulating greens gives him numerous birdie opportunities. The concern is fitness. A back injury sidelined him this spring after he had been among the top five favourites.

The Californian's previous major victories demonstrate his ability to perform under extreme pressure. At just 29 years old, he has time on his side and the experience to know what major championship golf demands.

Jon Rahm

Despite his move to LIV Golf, Jon Rahm remains one of the world's most talented players and a past Masters champion who understands exactly what it takes to succeed at Augusta. His aggressive style and exceptional short game make him a perennial threat on this layout.

The Spaniard's experience as a previous green jacket winner cannot be understated. He knows how to handle the unique pressures of Masters week and has proven he can close out major championships when in contention.

Rahm's limited competitive schedule on LIV Golf could work in his favour, arriving at Augusta fresh and motivated for one of the few tournaments where he can still compete against the world's best players regularly.

Tier 3: Sleeper Picks and Dark Horses

Tommy Fleetwood

The Englishman has consistently performed well in major championships and possesses the patient temperament that Augusta demands. His iron play and putting have improved markedly in recent seasons, and his experience in pressure situations makes him a dangerous dark horse.

Max Homa

The American's course management skills and exceptional putting make him ideally suited to Augusta's challenges. He earned his invitation by finishing inside the top 12 at Augusta in 2025, and he is still looking for his first major.

Hideki Matsuyama

The 2021 Masters champion knows exactly how to win at Augusta. That week he became the first Japanese man to win a major, and his experience gives him an edge over less experienced contenders.

Cameron Young

The American's prodigious length off the tee gives him significant advantages on Augusta's longer holes. He arrives having just won THE PLAYERS Championship, the biggest win of his career. His Augusta record is all or nothing: half of his four previous visits produced top-10 finishes, the other half early exits.

Key Holes That Decide the Masters

Understanding which holes typically determine Masters champions can provide insight into which players might succeed:

Amen Corner (holes 11-13) remains the tournament's most crucial stretch. Players who navigate these holes without major damage typically contend, while those who struggle here often see their chances evaporate.

The 15th hole provides one of the best birdie opportunities on the course, but the water hazard fronting the green has caught countless players over the years. Aggressive players who can reach the green in two shots have a significant advantage.

The 16th hole might be a short par-3, but the crowned green and surrounding hazards make it treacherous. Players who can consistently find the putting surface and avoid big numbers gain crucial strokes on the field.

The closing stretch of holes 17 and 18 demands precision under the most intense pressure in golf. Players who remain aggressive but smart on these holes often separate themselves from the pack.

Following the Masters Live

The Masters generates more drama per round than perhaps any other golf tournament, and following the action live adds to it. Amen Corner on a Sunday can turn a leaderboard in twenty minutes. GolfMode is being built to follow moments like that shot by shot. It is not out yet; join the waitlist to hear when it launches.

For additional context on the players competing this week, explore our detailed guides covering the PGA Tour and how to follow golfers live throughout major championships.

Our Final Predictions

Winner: Scottie Scheffler - his combination of current form, Augusta course knowledge, and mental toughness makes him the pick to claim his third green jacket.

Runner-up: Rory McIlroy. The defending champion will push hard again, but repeating at Augusta is one of the hardest things in golf.

Top 5: Ludvig Åberg, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa round out our predicted top five, with all three possessing the games to contend over four rounds.

Sleeper pick: Tommy Fleetwood - his patient approach and improved putting could see him surge into contention, particularly if conditions favour precision over power.

The beauty of the Masters lies in its unpredictability, and while these predictions reflect current form and course suitability, Augusta National has a habit of creating its own narratives. The green jacket winner will be determined by whoever best handles the unique pressures and challenges that make the Masters golf's most compelling tournament.

For how the tournament actually played out, see our Masters 2026 results.

How Our Predictions Held Up

We had the right two names at the top. In the wrong order.

Rory McIlroy won the 2026 Masters at 12 under par, 276, one shot clear of Scottie Scheffler at 11 under. He opened 67-65 to build a six-shot lead after 36 holes, a Masters record, then watched it vanish by Saturday night. He started Sunday tied with Cameron Young and closed 71 to hold on. It was his second straight green jacket and his sixth major. Only Jack Nicklaus (1965-66), Nick Faldo (1989-90) and Tiger Woods (2001-02) had won back-to-back Masters before him.

Scheffler, our winner pick, finished alone in second. McIlroy, our runner-up pick, won. Tyrrell Hatton, Russell Henley, Justin Rose and Young shared third at 10 under.

Our predicted top five fell short. Collin Morikawa came closest at T7, Xander Schauffele finished T9 and Ludvig Åberg T21, ending his run of top-seven finishes at Augusta. Tommy Fleetwood, our sleeper, was four under through 54 holes before a closing 76 dropped him to T33.

The dark horse list did better than the sleeper pick. Young was the best call on the page at T3, Max Homa matched Schauffele at T9 and Hideki Matsuyama finished T12. Jon Rahm opened with 78 and never recovered, finishing T38 at one over.

Player	Our prediction	Final position	Score
Rory McIlroy	Runner-up	1st	-12 (276)
Scottie Scheffler	Winner	2nd	-11 (277)
Cameron Young	Dark horse	T3	-10 (278)
Collin Morikawa	Top 5	T7	-9 (279)
Xander Schauffele	Top 5	T9	-8 (280)
Max Homa	Dark horse	T9	-8 (280)
Hideki Matsuyama	Dark horse	T12	-5 (283)
Ludvig Åberg	Top 5	T21	-3 (285)
Tommy Fleetwood	Sleeper pick	T33	E (288)
Jon Rahm	Strong contender	T38	+1 (289)

Augusta wrote its own narrative, as we said it might.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who was the betting favourite for the Masters 2026, and who won?

Scottie Scheffler went off favourite at +500 as world number one. Rory McIlroy won at 12 under, one shot ahead of Scheffler, for his second straight green jacket.

What makes Augusta National so difficult for first-time players?

Augusta National's unique characteristics - including extremely fast greens, specific pin positions, and wind patterns that change throughout the day - create challenges that can only be learned through experience. First-time players often struggle with distance control and green reading.

How important is previous Masters experience for winning?

While previous experience at Augusta helps enormously, it is not essential for contending. Ludvig Åberg finished runner-up on his Masters debut in 2024.

Which players have the best chance for a breakthrough major victory?

Ludvig Åberg, Tommy Fleetwood and Max Homa were still without a major heading into Augusta. None broke through there: Homa came closest at T9.

How do weather conditions affect Masters predictions?

Wind and weather significantly impact scoring at Augusta. Firm, fast conditions favour patient players with exceptional course management, while softer conditions allow more aggressive approaches. Weather forecasts leading into the tournament often influence betting markets and expert predictions.

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